Unfortunately, at the scales, accuracy, and precision most useful to protected area management, the future not only promises to be unprecedented, but it also promises to be unpredictable.
To decide whether and how to intervene in ecosystems, protected area managers normally need a reasonably clear idea of what future ecosystems would be like if they did not intervene. ( ① )
Management practices usually involve defining a more desirable future condition and implementing management actions designed to push or guide ecosystems toward that condition. ( ② )
Managers need confidence in the likely outcomes of their interventions. ( ③ )
This traditional and inherently logical approach requires a high degree of predictive ability, and predictions must be developed at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, often localized and near-term. ( ④ )
To illustrate this, consider the uncertainties involved in predicting climatic changes, how ecosystems are likely to respond to climatic changes, and the likely efficacy of actions that might be taken to counter adverse effects of climatic changes. ( ⑤ )
Comparable uncertainties surround the nature and magnitude of future changes in other ecosystem stressors. * adverse: 해로운 ** magnitude: 크기
