Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies

The potential for AI, particularly GenAI, to disrupt future employment has been a prominent topic in recent economic commentary. BLS employment projections consider and reflect the productivity-enhancing effects of automation and a wide range of technologies, including AI, on occupations and industries. Over the 2023–33 projections period, AI is expected to primarily affect occupations whose core tasks can be most easily replicated by GenAI in its current form. These occupations include medical transcriptionists and customer service representatives, whose employment is projected to decline by 4.7 and 5.0 percent, respectively, through 2033.

Other occupations also may see AI impacts, although not to the same extent. For instance, computer occupations may see productivity impacts from AI, but the need to implement and maintain AI infrastructure could in actuality boost demand for some occupations in this group. Among legal occupations, paralegals and legal assistants are likely to experience lower employment demand because of LLM adoption, while lawyers are expected to be less affected. Within business and financial operations occupations, insurance adjusters and appraisers are expected to see reduced employment demand, with AI being able to quickly produce monetary estimates of property damage. Meanwhile, other occupations in this group, such as personal financial advisors, will likely continue to see strong employment growth because demand for human counsel in complex financial matters will persist, particularly for older clients. Architecture and engineering occupations may see some productivity gains from GenAI, but these gains will likely be in line with those afforded by software and other technological advancements in prior decades. As a result, occupations in this group are not expected to see substantial GenAI-driven reductions in employment demand over the projections period.

Each year, BLS issues new 10-year projections that incorporate new data, research, and analysis. EP continually conducts research on new technologies, including AI and LLMs, to better understand their potential employment and economic impacts over the projections period. Besides reflecting these findings in its 10-year projections, the program also evaluates previous projections, explores shifts among skills that are in demand, and considers the potential for technology to create new types of jobs. EP will continue to monitor AI as it evolves, ensuring that BLS projections reflect an updated assessment of the latest developments in this technology and its likely employment impacts.