Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure
Paweł Gmyrek et al. (ILO) · 2025
국제노동기구(ILO)가 생성형 AI가 일자리에 미치는 영향을 직업별로 다시 계산한 2025년 보고서입니다. 세계 노동자 네 명 가운데 한 명이 생성형 AI의 영향을 받는 직업에서 일하고, 사무직이 가장 크게 영향을 받으며, 고소득 국가와 여성의 일자리에서 노출이 더 큽니다. 대부분의 직업에는 사람이 해야 하는 일이 있어 일자리가 없어지기보다 일의 내용이 바뀔 가능성이 크다고 결론짓습니다.
출처 Gmyrek et al. (2025), ILO Working Paper, 140 · 라이선스 CC BY 4.0 · 원문
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8장 · Adjustment of all survey scores
After adjusting the 608 tasks for which we had both survey scores and expert evaluations, we proceeded to predict adjustments for the remaining 2,253 tasks (2,861 minus 608) scored in the initial survey. Each of these tasks is linked to a reference cluster and semantically similar tasks that were reviewed and adjusted in the earlier steps (see Sections 5 and 6). To ensure consistency, the AI models were provided with the context of already adjusted scores from semantically similar tasks within the same occupational group and scoring bracket. Following the methodology outlined in Section 6, we utilized two independent AI models to generate predictions, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.95 across all data points. The final predicted scores were determined as the mean of the two model outputs.
Figure 15 shows all 2,861 tasks scored in the main survey, arranged on the horizontal axis in ascending order of their initial survey scores. Each panel represents a different occupational group. Red points indicate the mean scores derived from survey responses, while purple diamonds represent expert evaluations for tasks where such scores were available. Orange squares show the final adjusted scores, based on the AI-driven reconciliation of survey and expert evaluations for tasks with both inputs, and green triangles represent AI-based predictions for tasks without expert scores, using reference scores from the corresponding cluster as context. The blue lines illustrate the overall trend among the final scores (a mix of adjusted and predicted scores), with a notable lowering of scores for more manual tasks.
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