Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic

Suspension of face-to-face instruction in schools during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to concerns about consequences for students’ learning. So far, data to study this question have been limited. Here we evaluate the effect of school closures on primary school performance using exceptionally rich data from The Netherlands (n ≈ 350,000). We use the fact that national examinations took place before and after lockdown and compare progress during this period to the same period in the 3 previous years. The Netherlands underwent only a relatively short lockdown (8 wk) and features an equitable system of school funding and the world’s highest rate of broadband access. Still, our results reveal a learning loss of about 3 percentile points or 0.08 standard deviations. The effect is equivalent to one-fifth of a school year, the same period that schools remained closed. Losses are up to 60% larger among students from less-educated homes, confirming worries about the uneven toll of the pandemic on children and families. Investigating mechanisms, we find that most of the effect reflects the cumulative impact of knowledge learned rather than transitory influences on the day of testing. Results remain robust when balancing on the estimated propensity of treatment and using maximum-entropy weights or with fixed-effects specifications that compare students within the same school and family. The findings imply that students made little or no progress while learning from home and suggest losses even larger in countries with weaker infrastructure or longer school closures.

The COVID-19 pandemic is transforming society in profound ways, often exacerbating social and economic inequalities in its wake. In an effort to curb its spread, governments around the world have moved to suspend face-to-face teaching in schools, affecting some 95% of the world’s student population—the largest disruption to education in history. The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child states that governments should provide primary education for all on the basis of equal opportunity. To weigh the costs of school closures against public health benefits, it is crucial to know whether students are learning less in lockdown and whether disadvantaged students do so disproportionately.

Whereas previous research examined the impact of summer recess on learning, or disruptions from events such as extreme weather or teacher strikes, COVID-19 presents a unique challenge that makes it unclear how to apply past lessons. Concurrent effects on the economy make parents less equipped to provide support, as they struggle with economic uncertainty or demands of working from home. The health and mortality risk of the pandemic incurs further psychological costs, as does the toll of social isolation. Family violence is projected to rise, putting already vulnerable students at increased risk. At the same time, the scope of the pandemic may compel governments and schools to respond more actively than during other disruptive events.

Data on learning loss during lockdown have been slow to emerge. Unlike societal sectors like the economy or the healthcare system, school systems usually do not post data at high-frequency intervals. Schools and teachers have been struggling to adopt online-based solutions for instruction, let alone for assessment and accountability. Early data from online learning platforms suggest a drop in coursework completed and an increased dispersion of test scores. Survey evidence suggests that children spend considerably less time studying during lockdown, and some (but not all) studies report differences by home background. More recently, data have emerged from students returning to school. Our study represents one of the first attempts to quantify learning loss from COVID-19 using externally validated tests, a representative sample, and techniques that allow for causal inference.