World Development Report 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise

The nature of work is changing. Within countries, jobs have been shifting across sectors—sometimes on a massive scale. Some shifts have been out of agriculture. In what are now high-income countries, people have shifted out of agriculture dramatically over the last half-century. In the Republic of Korea, the share of workers in farm jobs fell from 80 percent in 1950 to less than 7 percent in 2009. In Chile, the share of farm workers fell from 30 percent to under 15 percent in the same period. Other shifts have been out of industrial production. In the United States, the share of workers in manufacturing halved between 1950 and 2009. In low- and middle-income countries, the shift is ongoing. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, employment in agriculture is expected to drop nearly 10 percent this decade, with a large rise in the numbers of people running small household businesses.

Technology—including digital technology—is central to these changes. Eighty-five percent of the population worldwide now has access to electricity. Digital technologies penetrate most corners of the world, with one mobile phone subscription per person globally, and 4 in 10 persons connected to the internet. As the World Development Report 2016 points out, “With rising computing power, combined with the connectivity and informational value of the internet, digital technologies are taking on more tasks.” This is particularly true for routine tasks that are easy to automate such as a cashier’s job. But other jobs—such as a teacher’s—are not easy to automate. Technology ultimately substitutes for some workers. For workers whose jobs are not replaced, such as hairdressers or surgeons, technology has varied effects. While it may leave the hairdresser relatively untouched, it can make the surgeon dramatically more productive—with digital imaging, for example. And, of course, technology creates new jobs as well. So technology eliminates some jobs, creates others, and increases the returns to yet others.

The impact of technology on jobs varies dramatically across countries. For rich countries, predictions range from dire (in which “robot overlords” take over most jobs) to the much more modest estimate that 9 percent of jobs in rich countries could currently be automated. For low-income countries, where technological penetration is much lower, the impact of technology on work will likely be more incremental (figure S5.1). Small-scale agriculture and household enterprises will not be automated in the near future, especially in countries such as Nicaragua, where less than 20 percent of households have access to the internet, or Liberia, where less than 10 percent of the population has access to electricity. Those numbers will surely grow; greater access to technology will enable more poor nations and individuals to access those sectors that see high returns to technological growth. But in the short run, technology will change the demand for skills much more in countries that have the infrastructure to support automation.

Individuals who enter the workforce with better technological skills will see benefits. Because technology affects different workers in different ways, those who emerge from the education system with technological skills are more likely to be able to enter those professions (high-skilled, high-paying) that are gaining from technology. Around the world, the rise of information technology is increasing the demand for high-skilled graduates who can use that technology effectively. That rising demand translates into higher wages. Because this dynamic can widen inequality, ensuring that much of the population has

Chile, more than 90 percent used computers at school access to these skills is essential. Globally, 85 percent and two-thirds had access to computers at home.

of countries include computer skills in their curricuAlthough two-thirds of them were able to search for lums for upper secondary school. But some regions information online, only half could organize informalag, with Sub-Saharan Africa at only 50 percent, and tion (such as arranging folders on the computer). Less much lower at lower levels of schooling. Beyond than one-third could produce information (such as the benefits to individuals, a population with strong writing an email with adequate content). Individuals technical skills is more likely to attract international need structured training in computing skills if they industries that require those skills, such as modern are to reap the returns of the technological revolution.

manufacturing.

Students entering the workforce need better critIn environments with extremely limited access to ical thinking and socioemotional skills. The ability to computing technology, simple exposure can make a use technology is one way for them to take advantage difference, but the skills that students gain are not the of technological advancement. But another is to excel skills they need. Replacing traditional textbooks with at those skills that technology carries out less well.

laptops equipped with electronic textbooks neither

Those include higher-order cognitive skills and interhelped nor harmed reading ability in Honduras, but in personal, socioemotional skills. In the United States, an environment where only 7 percent of students norjobs that require high socioemotional skills (such as mally use the internet at school, the laptops allowed nurses or social workers) are growing and jobs that many more of them to develop the ability to search require high socioemotional skills along with high for content online and do basic word processing.

cognitive ability (such as financial managers) are

In Romania, vouchers to purchase standard home growing the fastest. Education systems are begincomputers improved very basic general computing ning to learn how to cultivate socioemotional skills skills. But such skills that are gained from mere in learners: Recent efforts in Peru and Turkey have exposure may not be the skills needed to succeed resulted not only in better socioemotional ability in the marketplace. Distributing simple laptops for but also in better academic performance. It is not home use in Peru made learners more competent on enough to train learners to use computers: to navithose laptops, but that did not translate to better skills gate a rapidly changing world, they have to interact on other, general-use operating systems (such as Miceffectively with others, think creatively, and solve rosoft Windows). Among high school students in problems.

All of those skills that help individuals succeed in

All of those skills that help individuals succeed in digital content only if they have strong literacy skills.

digital content only if they have strong literacy skills.

rapidly changing economies are built on the same rapidly changing economies are built on the same

They can program new online applications only if

They can program new online applications only if foundations of literacy and numeracy. It may be foundations of literacy and numeracy. It may be they have confident numeracy skills. Socioemotional they have confident numeracy skills. Socioemotional tempting to divert resources from the development tempting to divert resources from the development skills like grit, which are most malleable in childhood, skills like grit, which are most malleable in childhood, of foundational skills into the technological skills, of foundational skills into the technological skills, can be practiced and strengthened in the service of can be practiced and strengthened in the service of higher-order cognitive skills, and socioemotional higher-order cognitive skills, and socioemotional gaining strong foundational skills. Higher-order coggaining strong foundational skills. Higher-order cogskills needed in the 21st century, which seem more skills needed in the 21st century, which seem more nitive skills involve consuming information using nitive skills involve consuming information using novel and exciting. But these are complements to novel and exciting. But these are complements to literacy and numeracy skills and combining it in new literacy and numeracy skills and combining it in new foundational skills, not substitutes for them—they foundational skills, not substitutes for them—they ways. Innovations in developing 21st-century skills ways. Innovations in developing 21st-century skills can only be built on a solid foundation. Workers can can only be built on a solid foundation. Workers can are much needed, but these skills work best in conare much needed, but these skills work best in consearch effectively for digital information or create search effectively for digital information or create junction with strong foundational abilities.

junction with strong foundational abilities.